The Original BARK Company (NYSE:BARK) would be the ideal stock for me as a dog lover if two conditions were met unconditionally. First and foremost, if I were living in the U.S. And second, if I was an investor acting on emotions, getting carried away by the company and its fancy products instead of doing due diligence. But is BARK stock a buy beyond the hype?
Before analyzing this stock and building a thesis on it, I would like to mention two of Warren Buffett’s quotes on investing that relate perfectly to the Original BARK Company. He said both “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” and “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
Both of them refer to value investing. And both of them are too insightful and smart.
It might be unfair to discuss value investing with The Original BARK Company, which just went public two months ago. But nevertheless, all stocks must be analyzed based on their prospects, business news, financial performance, and valuation. BARK stock is no exception.
Here is what I think about BARK stock after reviewing its products and financials. This is separate from how, as a pet lover, I want this company to succeed.
But now to the findings of my analysis.
Global Pet Care Market: High Growth is Expected
A report titled “Pet Care – Global Market Trajectory & Analytics” by Research And Markets mentions some interesting key facts about the pet care industry:
- “Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for Pet Care estimated at US$179.4 Billion in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of US$255.4 Billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 5.2% over the analysis period 2020-2027.”
- “The U.S. Market is Estimated at $76.8 Billion, While China is Forecast to Grow at 7% CAGR.”
We have a multi-billion industry and the Original BARK Company is set to have a market share both in pet care and in pet food with its range of products and solutions to pet lovers.
A Suite of Products Poised to Success
The main motto at the website of The Original BARK Company says “At BARK, we want to make dogs as happy as they make us. Because dogs and humans are better together.” It’s a clever one and a strong one.
The main products are the BarkBox, which is “A monthly themed box of toys, treats and unleashed joy”; the Super Chewer, “A monthly themed box of tough toys, treats, and chews for adventure-seeking dogs”; BARK Bright, which is a canine dental kit; and BARK Eats, personalized food for your dog. Items start, according to the company, as low as $1 a day.
I admit these products as a whole are brilliant. I would not hesitate to give them a try at all. And I bet a great many fog owners feel the same.
BARK Stock Growth Is Present But is it Sustainable?
The Original BARK Company mentions that it started with BarkBox in 2012 and now it reaches over 1 million dogs every month. It has clearly added several products, and is now available in thousands of retail locations. This is positive news. But being a company that just went public two months ago can this rate of growth — and especially the revenue growth — continue?
On page 34 of its investor presentation, The Original BARK Company estimates its revenue to be $516 million in FY 2022 and $706 million in FY 2023. So far, so good.
I am concerned, though, when I look at the bigger picture. The company estimates that despite its anticipated revenue growth it will have a net loss of $41 million for FY 2022. And on page 42, we see strong revenue growth and a net loss of about $31 million for FY 2020 and FY 2021.
And if you read my articles frequently, you know another important key metric I often refer to is operating income. BARK expects it to be negative until at least FY 2023.
I want firms to be making a profit from their core operations, having a positive operating income.
A Strong Q1 FY 2022 Earnings Report for BARK Stock
What is a catalyst to move any stock, no matter how young? A great earnings report. An article on Benzinga reported some very positive news about the Q1 FY 2022 earnings.
Some key highlights:
- “Original BARK Co reported first-quarter FY22 revenue growth of 57.2% year-on-year, to $117.61 million, beating the analyst consensus of $116.81 million
- “Gross profit rose 48.8% Y/Y to $69.8 million with a profit margin of 59.3%, which contracted 340 basis points.
- “Adjusted loss per share was $(0.09) versus the analyst consensus of $(0.06).
- “Outlook: Original BARK sees Q2 FY22 sales of about $122 million versus the consensus of $120.25 million.”
With a beat on revenue and a miss on EPS, the BARK stock is under selling pressure lately. Can this change or will it be short-term?
It all depends on the growth, not only in revenue but to the operating income, and ultimately the profitability.
So, bottom line. Do I like the company? Absolutely. Do I like its stock right now? Not really. Where are the profits?
As Warren Buffet said, the problem now is about price and value. Let’s give time to this pet company to deliver strong results, profits.
On the date of publication, Stavros Georgiadis, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Stavros Georgiadis is a CFA charter holder, an Equity Research Analyst, and an Economist. He focuses on U.S. stocks and has his own stock market blog at thestockmarketontheinternet.com/. He has written in the past various articles for other publications and can be reached on Twitter and on LinkedIn.